Re: Tupac Amaru

Original Sender: "Arnold, Lew C., 38 EIW/ESE" <Lew.Arnold@mailgate.eiw38.af.mil>

Subject: RE: Tupac Amaru

The Tupac Amaru or Movimiento Revolucionario Tupac Amaru (MRTA)
organization is politically a blend of Chinese Mao-Soviet
Stalinist-Cambodian Kymer Rouge Marxist organization. They are not as
insane as the Shining Path (Senero Luminaso) but their methods are the
same. The Tupac Amaru in the areas they have controlled in the past
have exercised their collective wisdom through action. That action has
been equal opportunity mass murder. A small scale version of the Kymer
Rouges killing field method of political purification. The Shining Path
subscibes to the Kymer killing field solution more than the MRTA. For
the most part the MRTA conducts terrorism; forced political
indoctrinations, robbery, kidnapping, extortion, and bombings.
They were in the past armed and funded by the Chinese, Cuba, and the
Soviet Union. With the cold war down to an economic survival struggle
by Cuba and the Federation of Russian States. The Peoples Republic of
China (PRC = Red Chinese) decided that the Tupac Amaru, Shining Path and
South America was an embarrassment to Marxism so they cut them off.
Besides the PRC decided to put most of their military money into
building a blue water Navy, so that they could take Taiwan back, despite
our Navy.
The Tupac Amaru leadership is mostly spanish big city
pseudo-intellectuals. All of the leadership was former
Socialist/Marxist University Professors and Students. Most of them
later spent years with Cambodia's Pol Pot (Kymer Rouge), Cuba and the
PRC learning the fundamentals of insurgency war, totalitarianism and
popular terrorism. There is nothing admirable about them. They are not
fighting for the rights of the oppressed, although that is what every
Marxist group has claimed since 1945.
The MRTA politically has been loosing ground since Peru began
instituting economic and political reforms, ie., moving away from
Socialism and Nationalized Industries.
The Tupac Amaru and the Shining Path have both substituted foreign aid
for Narcotics (Cocaine) trafficking to fund their activities. There are
covert supporters in the big cities (Lima the capitol city of Peru).
Who most likely gave material aid and comfort to the "MRTA fighters" for
this kidnapping/hostage action. About half of Peru land area is listed
as contested between the Government and the various druglords, MRTA and
SL.
Yes, all of the Spanish founded governments of South America have
practiced deplorable and stupid policies (Is ours any different?). Non
of them have in the last fifty years practiced deliberate extermination
programs. These governments are to poor, poorly equipped, with
extremely difficult geography and militarily inept to successfully carry
one out. Local armed citizens or groups murdering each other over land,
food and economics is nothing new on any continent or in any history.
Even the Soviet Army could not successfully execute a combined arms
genocide program in Afghanistan (similar difficult terrain but no
jungle)!
One of the strange things about the Peruvian Marxist groups is the fact
that the leadership are the sons and daughters of the Peruvian
Government Leadership/Elite. This is why the captured members have been
imprisoned in, by South American standards, high security Club Med
Resorts. I am not aware that any were executed after imprisonment. By
USA standards though Peruvian prisons have poor conditions.
This current hostage incident is in line with the tactics of the Tupac
Amaru organization. It is an act of media signifigance, with no real
military or political benefit. The MRTA has been performing robberies,
kidnappings, bombings and other such terrorist activities (by
definition) for years.

Back to this incident at the Japanese Embassy. The Tupac Amaru has
made one real demand, release of their leaders from prison. Their
other demands are for the media and negotiable. The Japanese
government and Military do not have any combat experience with
Counter-Terrorism (CT) Actions. I do not know if the Japanese have
their version of the US Army Delta Group (assume that they do have a
"Ninja" unit). I know that the Peruvian Military does not.
The Japanese control the outcome of this incident. The Embassy is
theirs. Will the Japanese government permit the Peruvian military to
assault or any other military unit to assault? Will the Peruvian
government permit the Japanese government to airlift a Japanese military
CT unit into the country? Will the Japanese and Peruvians come to a
diplomatic solution? This possibility is remote. The Peruvian
Government has a long history of no-comprises with any Terrorist
Actions, following the Israeli model.
Will both the Japanese and Peruvian governments request a third party
to militarily solve this problem? The US Special Operations Command,
Delta Force is most likely already present or in a nearby country.
If the Tupac Amaru kills anyone or causes the death of any of the
hostages, expect to see a Final Option approved (use of special military
force to rapidly terminate the incident).
If Delta does the job expect something like the following. Ideally a
3:00 am night time infiltration and blitzkrieg assault with the Peruvian
Military providing a noisy diversion. I would not bet money on the
personal survival of any of the Tupac Amaru fighters. Hostage
casualties would be very small.
If the Japanese Ninja unit does the job. The outcome would depend upon
their rules-of engagement. Capture the terrorists or kill them
immediatley. The Japanese in the past have always opted for capture and
arrest. In this situation this methodology results in much highier risk
of mission failure. Although the Japanese military is very professional
and capable (Samurai), their political leadership is less effective. I
would not bet on the Japanese performing a rescue. Expect the Japanese
Government to try to talk them to death.
If the Peruvian military does the assault, I would expect a repeat of
the last hostage assault they executed. They will frontally assault in
daylight with tanks and armored personnel carriers. The Japanese
compound will be 70% destroyed and 70% of the hostages will be killed.
If not by the MRTA then in the crossfire.

If I were betting money, I will bet on the Peruvian Government tasking
their own military to do the mission (it is a Macho and Nationalist
thing). With the outcome I have projected.

Pray for the hostages.

Lew Arnold
Si ego certiorem facium. Mihi tu delendus eris.

>----------
>From: AISESnet Discussion List[SMTP:aisesnet@bioc09.uthscsa.edu]
>Sent: Thursday, December 19, 1996 2:44 PM
>To: Multiple recipients of list
>Subject: Tupac Amaru
>
>Original Sender: Thom Hearty <thom@juno.physast.uga.edu>
>
>Subject: Tupac Amaru
>
>Hi,
>
>Does anyone have more details about the Tupac Amaru
>rebels than the press is willing to divulge? They
>are being called terrorists when as far as I know
>(which is very little unfortunately) is that the
>current Peruvian government is guilty of genocide.
>
>thom
>thom@juno.physast.uga.edu

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